Early counting trends from the June 19 assembly bypolls across four Indian states—Gujarat, Punjab, Kerala, and West Bengal—are revealing a complex political picture, with no single party dominating across all regions. As of Monday morning (June 23), the results point to local dynamics taking center stage ahead of a busy election calendar in 2026.
The bypolls, covering five seats, are being closely watched for hints at voter sentiment post the Lok Sabha elections, especially in states where regional forces continue to exert significant influence.
Gujarat: AAP Eyes Comeback in Visavadar, BJP Holds Kadi
In Gujarat’s Visavadar seat, AAP leader Gopal Italia is leading with a comfortable margin. The former Patidar movement leader appears to be regaining political relevance after his party's disappointing Lok Sabha performance. The seat became vacant after AAP’s Bhupendra Bhayani quit the party and joined the BJP. While BJP's Kirit Patel is putting up a fight, Congress has fallen far behind in the race.
In Kadi, the BJP seems poised to retain its hold. Rajendra Chavda, the party’s candidate, is ahead in the seat reserved for Scheduled Caste candidates. With both AAP and Congress fielding candidates from the same community, the vote appears to have split, consolidating BJP’s lead.
Punjab: AAP Surges in Ludhiana West
In a key seat in Punjab, AAP is once again ahead. Sanjeev Arora, industrialist and ex-Rajya Sabha MP, is leading in Ludhiana West, a seat that fell vacant after the death of MLA Gurpreet Bassi Gogi. His strong ground connect and clean image have helped him stay ahead of Congress candidate Bharat Bhushan Ashu. BJP's Jiwan Gupta is trailing in third.
This contest is being seen as a litmus test for AAP's continued credibility in Punjab, especially after recent setbacks in civic and Lok Sabha polls.
Kerala: Congress Leads in Nilambur
In the Nilambur seat of Kerala, the Congress-led UDF is showing early leads. Aryadan Shoukath, a known face in Malappuram politics and son of former minister Aryadan Mohammed, is ahead in the count. This bypoll holds significance as Congress General Secretary Priyanka Gandhi Vadra had personally campaigned here, pitching it as a prestige battle.
The CPI(M)-led LDF has fielded M Swaraj, while BJP’s candidate is advocate Mohan George. The seat was previously held by PV Anvar, who had distanced himself from the Left and later joined the TMC, adding a layer of complexity to the contest.
West Bengal: TMC Firmly Ahead in Kaliganj
In West Bengal’s Kaliganj, the ruling TMC is cruising ahead. Alifa Ahmed, daughter of former MLA Nasiruddin Ahmed, is leading in a constituency with a sizable minority population. The Congress’s Kabil Uddin Shaaikh and BJP’s Ashish Ghosh are both trailing.
